The only blog that can factually claim to shift the Bell Curve, along with the hearts & minds of America, to the right.
Sunday, July 02, 2006
Don't get your hopes up.
In light of recent Supreme Court decisions, an interesting little debate has aroused over the possible retirement of Justice John Paul Stevens. Stevens is currently the oldest and longest serving member of the Court. At 86, it seems that he could retire at any moment. The possible retirement is critical because the court has four liberals, four conservatives, and an independent. Being a liberal, Stevens’s retirement would allow President Bush to give conservatives a clear majority on the Supreme Court.
I am going to make a bold prediction (bold for me), especially since I know almost nothing about the Supreme Court. I think Stevens will do his best stay on the Court until Bush is out of office. He may not have to if the Democrats take the Senate in November, but that looks unlikely.
To me, three scenarios seem likely.
1. He will stay on the Court until ‘08 and retire either once a Democrat is elected and is assured that he will be replaced with a liberal thinking judge, or will give up on the possibility when a Republican is elected. 2. Health issues will force him to retire. This scenario I am not sure of because unlike former Chief Justice Rehnquist, Stevens has not had his health problems aired all over the news. So presumably, he is in good health. 3. The third possibility is that he could die before ‘08. Just like the second scenario, this seems kind unlikely. On the other hand, old people tend to be fragile, and one fall in the bathtub could spell doom.
Stevens could retire tomorrow and make me look like a buffoon, but its easy to understand why he would not. A Supreme Court that leaned in Bush’s favor would be the dread of liberals everywhere. At the least, it would mean no rulings like the one we had last week regarding Gitmo detainees. However, more importantly, it would mean a certain overturning of Roe V. Wade, which would allow states to regulate abortion as they see fit.
Some conservatives are giddy of the idea of a Stevens retirement, but it seems more like a pipe dream than a realistic possibility. Stumble It!